Historical rivals Poland and Russia have curiously found themselves in the same position vis-a-vis the West after Warsaw recently came under intense Western Hybrid War pressure due to its conservative-nationalist values, which are actually the real driving force behind the similar Western campaign against Moscow too.
The West's Ideological Aggression Against Poland
Poland and Russia are nowadays usually only included in the same sentence whenever one's discussing their recently revived historical rivalry, particularly over their shared Belarusian and Ukrainian borderlands, but they've both curiously just found themselves in the same position vis-a-vis the West. Warsaw recently came under an intensified Western pressure campaign jointly led by the US and Germany and which can rightly be described as a Hybrid War after the Central European leader's nominal “allies” began to meddle in its domestic affairs due to the ruling Law & Justice Party's (PiS) conservative-nationalist values. PiS' vision for its fellow Poles sharply contrasts with the liberal-globalist one that the US and Germany want to impose upon the rest of European society, especially those states like Poland which continue to embrace the polar opposite values.
PiS Is Shocked
This development can be described as nothing less than a shock for PiS, which naively thought that it would be spared from their unconventional acts of aggression due to the leading role that it plays on their behalf in attempting to “contain” Russia. I elaborated on this in my recent analysis about how “The Joint US-German Hybrid War Against Poland Is Intensifying”, which drew attention to the Baltic Pipe's sudden delay by that first pair of countries' ally, the influential Washington Post's unprecedented editorial lobbying American officials to do everything in their power to push back against PiS' efforts to regain control of a US-owned anti-government media outlet, and the official confirmation that Washington and Berlin struck a deal with Moscow over Nord Stream II that Warsaw regards as being against its national interests.
“The Great Power Chessboard”
My insight built upon prior analyses that I recently released and which are hyperlinked to in the above-mentioned article. To concisely summarize the rapidly evolving geostrategic situation, the Biden Administration surprisingly embraced the Trump one's pragmatic policy of engaging with Russia for the purpose of regulating their Great Power competition in Eurasia (specifically Central & Eastern Europe [CEE] in this context) in order to eventually redirect most of its focus towards “containing” China, which the US' permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) nowadays regard as much more of a pressing threat to their grand strategic interests than Russia. Poland's national interests as PiS understands them to be were traded away by Germany and the US in pursuit of their broader interests with Russia on the “Great Power Chessboard”.
Will Tusk Topple Kaczynski?
It's already bad enough for Poland that its envisioned regional energy leadership plans are now jeopardized by the trilateral US-German-Russian deal over Nord Stream II, which Warsaw suspects could have long-term strategic implications related to its potentially growing dependence on Russian-supplied energy through Germany, but everything's made even worse by the fact that the US and Germany are jointly supporting the domestic opposition's regime change plans against PiS. Donald Tusk's return to Poland to lead the Civic Platform (PO) heralds an unprecedented escalation of this Hybrid War, which isn't driven by any geopolitical considerations since both it and PiS are firmly in support of Poland's anti-Russian military alliance with the US, but by purely ideological ones related to the ruling party's conservative-nationalist values.
Some in Poland might have suspected that their US and German “allies” would “sell out” their energy-related interests to Russia, but it's doubtful that they ever thought those two would join forces to overthrow the ruling party through an ongoing Color Revolution. PiS certainly never countenanced such a scenario because it convinced itself that it was safe from their scheming by virtue of being their military bulwark against Russia. What “grey cardinal” Kaczynski didn't incorporate into his strategic calculations, however, is that PiS is easily replaceable by PO with respect to advancing this military agenda. In fact, PO is arguably much more attractive to the US and Germany right now since those two's leaderships share Tusk's liberal-globalist vision that they want to impose upon the rest of Poles, who are presently divided almost perfectly in half over ideology.
The Double Backstab
PiS didn't pay proper attention to the joint US-German Hybrid War against it despite obvious warning signs from the moment that Biden entered office and still refuses to acknowledge this “politically incorrect” reality of its two “allies” backstabbing their top military partner against Russia over ideological reasons. Kaczynski's denial of this objectively existing state of strategic affairs is accelerating the continued erosion of PiS' socio-political interests ahead of the 2023 elections, which could ultimately spell the party's doom if these trends aren't soon reversed. PiS' fall from power would complete Germany's conquest of CEE by toppling the region's most influential force for promoting conservative-nationalist ideals and thus ensuring the hegemonic dominance of Berlin's liberal-globalist vision over the last remaining mostly traditional societies in Europe.
Exploiting Kaczynski's Russophobia
Kaczynski's personal hatred for Russia (which he believes was secretly responsible for the tragic 2010 Smolensk air disaster that killed his brother who was serving as President at the time as well as dozens of other Polish officials) was masterfully manipulated by the US and Germany in order to distract him from their incipient ideological crusade against PiS. The grey cardinal wrongly thought that they too shared his deep distrust of Russia for geopolitical reasons when in reality it can be argued that they were always really opposed to it for ideological ones like I argued in my October 2020 analysis titled “A New Wall For A New Cold War?” Poles' historical trauma regarding their memory of relations with Russia, especially Kaczynski's comparatively more recent personal one, were exploited to convince them they were on the same side against Russia.
Poland, Not Russia, Is The West's Top Ideological Enemy Right Now
The reality was altogether different though since it's now known the US' “deep state” (which except for the brief Trump years was always in support of liberal-globalist ideals) and Germany were secretly united in their ideological opposition to PiS as well, which they regard as embracing the same conservative-nationalist values as Russia does, albeit in a different manner expressed in line with Poland's separate cultural and historical conditions. Nevertheless, in the US' and Germany's eyes, PiS is just as problematic than what they call “Putin's Russia”, if not more so, since the former is part of the EU and can therefore push back against this German-led bloc's ideological crusade to impose liberal-globalist values upon the remaining part of Europe that has yet to submit to them.
Germany's Planned Conquest Of CEE
This is the geostrategic CEE space in which Poland is the uncontested demographic, economic, and ideological leader, the latter of which is poised to grow through the recently established Collegium Intermarium so long as PiS remains in power. About that educational-ideological initiative, it aims to promote PiS' conservative-nationalist values across the rest of the region through the “Three Seas Initiative” (3SI) that Poland leads. This represents perhaps the greatest ideological threat this century to the shared US-German goal of imposing liberal-globalist ideals upon the continent's CEE holdouts since they rightly fear that Poland has successfully tapped into the regional zeitgeist and might soon shape the situation in such a way that those two will lose control over its socio-political dynamics. For this reason, PiS must be deposed and the 3SI hijacked by Germany in order to remove its ideological dimension and transform it into a platform for German economic dominance.
Proposed Geopolitical & Geo-Economic Solutions
I've previously proposed a two-part geopolitical and geo-economic solution for relieving the Western pressure upon Poland and thus enabling it to more to confidently push back against these joint US-German Hybrid War threats. “It's Time For A Polish-Russian 'Non-Aggression Pact' in Belarus & Ukraine” and “Poland Should Follow Ukraine's Lead In Using China To Balance The US” were my two recent pieces proposing these eponymous solutions, respectively. They should be read in full by those patriotic Poles who sincerely aspire to help their homeland confront the cutting-edge Hybrid War challenge posed to them by their country's nominal “allies”. De-escalating the geopolitical situation in Belarus and Ukraine with Russia would result in Polish strategists concentrating more on urgent internal affairs while economically embracing China would show the West how serious Poland is about balancing between the world's most important Great Powers.
The Urgent Need For “Cultural Sovereignty”
There's a third component that I hadn't discussed before but which might be the most important part of any comprehensive solution to Poland's Hybrid War predicament. That's the need to seriously consider promulgating an official policy of “cultural sovereignty” modeled off of the one recently promoted by ideologically similar Russia in its new National Security Strategy. After all, the crux of the present problem is that the US and Germany successfully manipulated the minds of millions of Poles over the years through information warfare campaigns and NGOs by taking advantage of the country's liberal-globalist ideological obligations as an EU member. Polish history was manipulated to reduce Poles' pride in their nation, which in turn made them more susceptible to pernicious suggestions for radically transforming their society.
The implied purpose of this silent Hybrid War campaign was to gradually cultivate a so-called “Homo Europaeus” ideologically modeled off of its “Homo Sovieticus” predecessor that would then eventually facilitate the replacement of conservative-nationalist governments with liberal-globalist ones through “democratic” means in forthcoming elections upon becoming the majority of the electorate. The end goal is to erase Europeans' sense of national identity, specifically as it manifests itself through culture and history, in order to produce an amorphous blob of identical “Homo Europaeus” who would in turn submit to Berlin-backed Brussels' unelected transnational authority. This outcome is a creative ideological means to the geopolitical end of German hegemony over Europe, which the US' “deep state” supports through its “Lead From Behind” (LFB) stratagem for delegating regional leadership responsibilities to key stakeholders like Berlin.
Was Kaczynski Too Politically Russophobic For His Own Good?
Poland rightly regards itself as the US' LFB partner for militarily “containing” Russia in CEE, but PiS mistakenly thought that it was irreplaceable in this respect due to its de facto leader's globally infamous political Russophobia. He was totally wrong with that strategic calculation since it's now apparent that the US wants to replace him with German-backed liberal-globalist Tusk who'll continue the spirit of that geopolitical policy but in a comparatively more “moderate” manner given the evolving circumstances of the US-German-Russian “New Detente” that's being actively negotiated between their leaders through a series of mutual compromises across the “Great Power Chessboard” of Eurasia. In hindsight, PiS was actually too anti-Russian for its own good since it didn't countenance that the geostrategic situation might change and its policies would be regarded as counterproductive to US and German interests.
The Hybrid War On Poland Was Years In The Making
Nevertheless, had PiS been a liberal-globalist party, then neither of them would ever consider replacing it through a jointly organized Color Revolution. PiS would have simply been pressured to “moderate” its policies in order to advance those two's regional interests with Russia and that would have been all, but its conservative-nationalist values are now regarded as the greatest threat to the US' and Germany's imposition of liberal-globalist ones over the CEE holdouts. That's why PiS must be overthrown, which they prepared to do years ago during the silent phase of their Hybrid War in organizing information warfare campaigns and NGOs to gradually manipulate the mind of the Polish electorate per their long-term plan for ideologically transforming Poles into “Homo Europaeus”. Poland lacked any serious understanding of what Russia now officially regards as “cultural sovereignty”, which inadvertently facilitated everything and thus directly led to the current crisis.
Poland's Last Chance For Survival
For as much as PiS' leadership hates Russia, it actually has a lot in common with its historical rival nowadays since those two are under intense Western pressure for the same ideological reasons in that they both proudly promote conservative-nationalist values that are at odds with the US' and German's liberal-globalist ones. This shared strategic struggle should be used as the basis for fostering a geopolitical rapprochement between them in their shared Belarusian and Ukrainian borderlands so that each can then concentrate more fully on thwarting domestic ideological threats to their leaderships. In parallel with this, Poland must economically embrace China in order to show the West that it has credible long-term alternatives in this sense while seriously considering promulgating a decisive policy of “cultural sovereignty” modeled off of Russia's. There is no other way for Poles to survive this Hybrid War onslaught and prevent their transformation into “Homo Europeaus”.
Will The “Christ Of Nations” Be Crucified Again?
Having said that, I need to be absolutely clear that there's nothing wrong in principle with Poland retaining its military alliance with the US, economic ties with Germany, and receiving financial aid from the EU since these all advance the country's national interests as its leadership understands them to be. The problem is that they mustn't come with cultural-ideological strings attached whereby Poland cedes its people's very identity to those three and ultimately leads to the very idea of Polishness being erased from European consciousness with time. That would be far worse than the country geopolitically disappearing like in times past because the only reason that the “Christ of Nations” rose from the dead was because Poles always remembered that they were Poles and never let others take that away from them. The tragedy of current times is that while Poland continues to geopolitically exist, the idea of Polishness is disappearing in Poland itself due to this Hybrid War.
Poland Is Once Again The Pivot Of Western History
The continued geopolitical existence of Poland in those circumstances would simply be as a temporary administrative unit run by Berlin-backed Brussels prior to it inevitably being dismantled like all European nation-states into separate regions to facilitate Germany's divide-and-rule goal of ruling the continent through a so-called “federation of regions”. The only thing standing in the way of this dark future is Poland, which can objectively be described in this strategic context as the biblical concept of the “katechon” who restrains the forces of chaos. PiS' fall by American-German Hybrid War hands would spell doom for Europe's conservative-nationalist future and herald the continent's conquest by Germany. As dramatic as it sounds, Poland is once again the pivot of Western history just like it was in 1939, but hopefully this time it can properly defend itself.